Volume 27 | September 26, 2023
Welcome to Brief Volume 27!
We are one day away from the highly anticipated Access Control Summit in Washington, DC, and conference season is in full swing.
Before the event, I am providing you with a quick Brief for a few important reasons.
Firstly, an engaging and growing conversation has occurred on the Access Control Executive Brief Slack group. You all have been invited, and while some actively participate, many others still need to join. A ton of value is being created there, and I'd love for those of you who have not joined to check it out. I want to highlight some of the interesting discussions that have been happening there, and I have also added my thoughts on these topics.
Secondly, as Access Control Executive Brief members, I am informing you that you will have exclusive access to all the presentations at ACS23. Although we will promote clips and soundbites on social media, you will get access to every presentation in full. We are recording each session and sharing them with you via the Brief. My ultimate goal is to make ACS the first omni-channel conference, and step one in achieving that is ensuring that the conference content is accessible digitally.
Thirdly, I wanted to share several additional services, tools, and content we are working on for the access control and smart lock industry—more on those below.
UPCOMING TRIPS & OPPORTUNITIES TO CONNECT
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September 27-28: The Access Control Summit, Washington DC (USA)
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October 13-16: CONSULT, Louisville, Kentucky (USA)
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October 17-18: Securing New Ground, New York (USA)
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October 24-25: SECTECH in Stockholm, Sweden
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November 14-15: ISC East, New York (USA)
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December 13-14: Security Investor Conference, New York (USA)
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January 16-18: Intersec, Dubai [if interested in participating in the Thought Leadership Pavillion at Intersec, please let me know]
Thank you for being a member. Our community is continuously growing, and I appreciate your trust in me. I am grateful for this opportunity and will strive to continue delivering. If, for any reason, I am not meeting your expectations, please feel free to let me know.
PS: I am sure some of you may forward this on but please do so sparingly and encourage others to sign up here. Thank you!
New Services From the Access Control Executive Brief Now and Coming in 2024
The first service we will roll out is AC Alerts, available at www.acalerts.co. This platform combines the effectiveness of Google Alerts and PRNewswire, tailored specifically for the access control industry. Users can sign up to receive news updates at no cost, while on the other, companies can efficiently distribute their news by signing up, paying a minimal fee, and sharing their updates. It is intended to be easy and effective. I think we accomplished that.
The second service we are developing is AC Enablement. Consider AC Enablement, a crowd-sourced service provider that helps bring your ideas to life. Whether it's marketing and communications, implementing Apple Wallet, firmware design, PCB design, dealer programs, or any other need, AC Enablement will connect you with the right experts from the Access Control Executive Brief who can assist in making your plans a reality.
The third initiative is the AC 50 Index. It's time to take control of our industry's metrics and data rather than relying on inaccurate information from external sources. Through the AC 50 Index, I will poll 50 large and small global access control companies to gather data on various aspects of our business. This aggregated and anonymous information will provide valuable insights into industry sentiment, market trends, and overall performance. It will be a benchmarking resource for banks, PE/VC firms, shareholders, and everyone involved in the access control industry. Please engage with me and share your data to make this initiative successful. Rest assured that we will keep it private and use it only in aggregate to benefit the industry.
#accesscontrol. We are excited to announce that #accesscontrol (yes, that is the name. Pronounced “Hashtag Access Control) will be the first content creator conference for the access control and smart lock industry. How we market, communicate, and influence has evolved, shifting from in-person interactions to online engagement. Whether you work in a marketing department, are an up-and-coming online influencer, or want to enhance your storytelling skills in the digital realm, this conference will provide a platform for education, best practice sharing, and community building within the access control industry. Stay tuned for more updates on this exciting event.
Last but not least, we will launch a new podcast called "The Access Control Executive Brief Podcast" (catchy, I know. See the cover image that Bert made below ). The first season will have 10 episodes focusing on our industry's "AND vs. OR" dynamics. We will interview global leaders to explore their perspectives on "Cards vs. Mobile" and explore why they see it as an "AND vs. OR" opportunity. We aim to present a balanced view by pairing legacy companies with new players, showcasing different approaches and reasoning. If you are interested in participating, please reach out to us. No cost is involved, and the guests will only Access Control Executive Brief members will be featured on the podcast.
In addition to these exciting initiatives, we have signed agreements to activate global shows, including Securing New Ground in NY, a thought leadership pavilion at Intersec in Dubai, an access control forum at The Security Event in Birmingham, and a connected experience at CREtech London and New York. Furthermore, we plan to expand the reach of ACS to Europe and APAC.
I will also be traveling to Sweden and India by year's end to meet with many of the companies in our industry in those regions.
There is plenty to look forward to and numerous opportunities for collaboration. Thank you for your continued support and partnership.
Who will be purchasing LenelS2, Onity, and Supra?
Recently, I asked a question on Slack and conducted a poll on LinkedInto share and inquire about this topic.
"I have a hunch based on conversations (not with anyone at LenelS2, Onity, or Supra) that we will find out sooner rather than later who the new owner is of LenelS2, Onity, or Supra... who do you think it will be?"
Both received a significant number of responses and generated conversation.
The Access Control Executive Brief Slack conversation leaned towards Cannon as the community favorite to acquire LenelS2, Onity, and Supra. I refer to this as the "heart" selection. In our hearts, we want this. It makes sense. Milestone needs an access control system, and LenelS2 needs a video system. It's a classic peanut butter and jelly combination. However, sometimes the most obvious choice doesn't happen, and this is the case. It shouldn't happen, and everything I am told only strengthens my opinion.
Based on LinkedIn, many believe it will be a private equity (PE) firm. I refer to this as the "hope" selection. I, too, hope this is the case. I hope it happens because this would be the only scenario that significantly impacts realizing the full potential that LenelS2 has. The reason comes down to incentives. PE firms are not interested in slow and steady progress. PE firms are not interested in maintaining the status quo. PE firms expect a return on their investment and are willing to make tough decisions for growth and change. Unfortunately, a PE firm will not be willing to pay the premium that strategic companies will.
This leads me to whom I believe will make a solid effort to acquire LenelS2, Onity, and Supra.
It will be either Motorola or Allegion.
For LenelS2/Onity/Supra
They are better off being broken up into separate companies, and a PE firm would give them the best incentives for growth, proper investment, outside-the-box thinking, and making the needed hard business decisions. Going to Motorola would be the best of a terrible choice between them and Allegion. At Motorola, there will be a reduction in redundancy resulting in efficiencies (like sales staff), but it does not matter for those who are in the camp of progress. If they go to Allegion, it would be a train wreck of an integration from a business point of view, a strategically bad business decision, and a progress point of view. In the end, it won’t matter if it goes anywhere but a PE firm.
For Motorola
It would further itself as the legacy business's dominant brand house. It wouldn't suit LenelS2, but it would be suitable for Motorola as they would continue with inorganic growth. Their leverage at the dealer channel would be significant, but it doesn't fix the problem with the end customer long term (sure, short term but not long term), especially at the Enterprise customers. You don't fix innovation and culture by bolting on a large entity.
For Allegion
This would signal a back-to-the-future play (a reference to Jefferies, which turned into Vanderbilt). However, this company has a weak history of integrating companies exponentially (reference Isonas and a few others). Maybe, with their new CEO, things are changed. It will be seen as a solid play by the stock market, which is the M&A thesis, so they will see a favorable uptick in their stock price (see my last Brief on incentives). Still, in the end, it would be a disaster with their partnering position and a boon for dormakaba and Salto (if they do something with the opportunity). This will alienate their partners and set their internal resources on fire. At the leadership table at Allegion, there isn't anyone who can run this business daily (maybe Jeff will stay?), and the secondary effects will render this the end of the relevancy road for LenelS2 (doesn't mean it won't make money; see Pelco, but the relevancy won't).
What does this mean for the remaining community?
It creates a massive opportunity to prey on the disruption and void in the market it would create. Companies like Genea, Brivo, Gallagher, and even Acre will benefit greatly. Genetec will also help, but only to a small degree. Genetec is a company that has a lousy formula for this to benefit them exponentially: High View of One's Self + Historical Success = Complacency. Gentec, like others, has an incentive problem that needs to be fixed.
Pray for a PE firm to see the value.
What is the fastest way to waste $1M đź’° in marketing spend in the access control industry?
Answer: Purchasing booth space for ASIS International GSX 2024 in Orlando and spending money on setting up a booth.
It would be great to see our industry end this meaningless expenditure and take action. You should 100% get booth space, just don’t put up a booth.
It may be this community that does so. If you are interested in doing something different, please let me know as I am interested in helping.
Why Focusing on Vertical Shows Makes Good Business Sense Right Now, Especially in Commercial Real Estate.
We recently completed the Access Control and Smart Lock Village at CREtech NY. Over 2 days, 15 companies came together to showcase and present their products, services, and value creation specifically curated for commercial real estate and multifamily/residential owners, operators, and developers. Despite the prevailing doom and gloom in the commercial and multifamily/residential markets, the event was a resounding success. Why? Because markets are cyclical, the retrofit markets are ripe, and technology adoption will only increase, not decrease. Now is the time to build relationships and invest. It will pay dividends when the market turns.
Transitioning from GSX to CREtech, you could feel the difference in the effectiveness of participating in a vertically focused shows. Vertical shows offer a unique opportunity for lead generation, particularly at the top of the sales funnel. At vertical shows like CREtech, we encounter the customers customer actively seeking in-depth discussions about how our industry solutions can enhance the utility value proposition we have been delivering for years and provide exponential value regarding operational efficiencies and revenue generation.
Similar dynamics can be observed in vertical-specific shows such as worktech, critical infrastructure, and multifamily/residential.
Do. More. Of. This.
Click on the images below to see some highlights from Day 1 and Day 2 of CREtechNY.
Day 1:
Day 2:
