Volume 33

• There were monthly webinars and podcasts to share our industry point of view and highlight all the progress we've made as an industry.

• LinkedIn stats across my personal profile page, Lee Odess company page, and the Access Control Executive Brief showcase page went wild:

  • Impressions: Over 2,500,000 🤯

  • Most viewed posts?

    • Asking for help with fake LinkedIn posts 🫠

    • Bosch Security is up for sale 😳

    • Introduction of the Global Top Map 🌍 (I started with 203 companies. We are over 450 now)

  • Engagements: Over 50,000

    • Most engaged post?

      • Security Industry Association PTAB recognition👏

      • Mentoring reflection 🪞

      • 2023 Access Control Trends and Predictions 🙌🏻 (I am thinking about doing this again)

• 33 total Briefs with over 132,000 words and 759,000 characters (and countless grammatical errors 🤷🏻‍♂️). Each one of these is like one of my babies 👶🏼. I care deeply about every word that is written and am grateful for the opportunity to express myself through writing. Each of the titles listed below are posted on the Access Control Executive Brief website. If you need help finding them, please let me know. My take on the themes? 2023 was the starting line of the next 30 years of our industry, and the topics reflect that. Many foundational changes that accelerated due to COVID-19 were starting to be realized in 2023. There is still a ton of work to get done, but it is a start. What stood out for you?

  • A new channel: ISV and SIs

  • The Opportunity for the Access Control Industry and ESG

  • The Unbundling and Re-bundling of an Industry

  • 4 Things As We Close Out 2022

  • Welcome Back and Quick Updates

  • I Cloud. Brand it?

  • A Plea to the Built Environment: Get More Curious About Safety & Security.

  • A View of the Access Control & Smart Lock Industry in North America and Europe

  • Brief Update

  • The Spawning of a New Specifier

  • Why am I so Agitated? The Desire for New (and Old) Leadership

  • MIPIM Just Hit Different. Here is Why.

  • Not so obvious ISC West Observations

  • My 20% Challenge

  • Global Trends Impacting the Access Control and Smart Lock Industry" as seen as The Security Event

  • mobile credentials and wallets: A story about how our industry missed an opportunity

  • The Need for Introjection in the Access Control Industry

  • Can Anyone, From Anywhere, with a Computer Create a Physical Access Control Software Company?

  • What the Access Control Industry Can Learn from Apple's WWDC

  • Access Control and Locks: A View of North America and Europe

  • Access Control and Smart Locks: A Deep Dive Into North America

  • Access Control and Smart Locks: A Deep Dive Into Europe

  • Who Will Be the Access Control App Store?

  • Part 1: Australia and New Zealand Market Observations

  • Part 2: My Thoughts on 5 Companies I Met Within Australia and New Zealand (plus other tidbits)

  • The Incentive Pandemic: Why Our Industry Needs to Change to Adopt New Technology

  • Updates before ACS23

  • ACS23 Recap

  • ACS23 Videos (1 of 2)

  • ACS23 Themes and Trends

  • The Need for PE: The LenelS2, Onity, and Supra Story

  • Webinar, Prox & Linear Thinking, and Canaries

Trends, Assumptions, and Impacts 

Every year around this time, we start to see predictions posted about what the next year will bring. Instead of doing that, I focused on a list of "2023 Things That Matter." This list is what I presented recently to a member webinar and two conferences, and I have had two companies ask me to visit their leadership team to workshop these out specifically to their products and services. If any of that interests you, please let me know, and we can arrange it. I am also using these topics that matter combined with market assumptions to start discussing what I believe will happen in 2024. It's like predictions but more presented in a manner that can help inform your views. I will dig a bit deeper into each of these in the coming Briefs, in video content, and also on Slack, but here are the 2023 Things That Matter to me:

1. Emphasis on "Things" 

   We have moved from a value proposition of people and places to include things now. I heard "things" said more by leadersIt's all about the data. Remember IoT? This is it.

2. A Fit for Purpose

   Our systems need to fit the purpose desired by our customers. For years, we've been able to tell them what they need. Now? We must do what they need. 

3. Training and Certification

   This needs a reboot to match the needs of not the past 30 years but the next 30. Companies that jump on this soon will benefit greatly. Training and certification, or education, is the most productive marketing your company can do. But, it needs to move beyond a transactional process of accessing products. It would help if you made it about the individual and community. 

4. Consolidation

   The landscape of our industry is being refactored as we speak. Whether it's product categories consolidating through M&A or brands repositioning themselves in the market, we will look very different in the coming years. 

5. Historical Moats Reduced

   As we shift from a hardware-centric industry to a software-centric industry, the barriers of entry for companies all over the globe to enter others have been reduced. There is an influx of European and APAC-focused companies entering North America. And it's only just started. 

6. Impact of High Interest, Office Occupancy Rates, and Neighborhood Rise

   There is no way to deny the fact that the changes in this market will have a substantial impact on our industry. The industry will face the impact of high-interest rates, as it affects both customers and consumers. While the industry is expected to remain healthy, it may not be as bullish as before. Lower office occupancy rates will have a trickle-down effect on the industry, particularly in B and C-class markets. Retrofit projects in A-class and major metropolitan areas will still be substantial, but companies must provide value beyond basic access control to drive operational efficiencies and revenue generation. 

7. A Refined Channel

   There is an evident broad friction with the new way our products and services will go to market as we move forward. Instead of burning calories on why the current channels "aren't right" or professing the downfall of a manufacturer for "going direct," I think we are all better suited coming together, identifying the market needs, aligning on the best path forward (direct, teaming, and channel) and stop forcing all this new through the old and expecting new results. It's the definition of insanity. 

8. Margin Stacking Conundrum

   Margin stacking conundrum. Because we have not worked out the new structure of how we price the software, middleware, applications, and ecosystem, especially when an existing system is already installed, and middleware, applications, and platforms are introduced, customers are becoming very aware of the rising costs of stacking everyone's margins on top of each other. This will not sustain. It is the equivalent of when many of us "cut the cable cord" and went to video streaming. Many did it because the cost-to-value ratio was low for regular cable but high for streaming services. Well, that has broken down a bit for many when you added all the different streaming services. You ended up paying more. But this comp breaks down for our industry because we don't have great content like your favorite show, so there is less of a willingness to continue paying all the fees "just because." This is why I believe legacy access control systems rendered to one user and one schedule AND the lock hardware companies who live off of raising prices to keep up their margins and make up for slumping sales are in trouble—also known as the losers in this trend. The winner? The software companies.

9. Single Pane of Glass 

   It's no longer about PSIMs, your app, or the head-end hardware installed on the wall. The real estate many are going after is the single pane of glass. A single pane of glass is an application that consolidates all the different "systems" the end customer wants to manage and has it expressed through one user interface. Regardless of whether the angle is to own all the security systems under one user experience or different utilities like security, HVAC, lighting, and more, it is apparent that the beachhead is access control. Why? Source of record. Or said differently, it's all about the consumer. 

10. Managers Out, Leaders In

    Let's face it: we've had a 15+ year bull run. For many "leaders" in our industry, it's been more about managing through these times than leading. On top of that, many of these managers have made more money than they've ever imagined. The market is turning. It's changing. And it will take new ideas, hard decisions, risky decisions, and a ton of leadership to go through the next ten years. We will see many managers in our industry retire, opening up the opportunity for new ideas, decision-makers, risk-takers, and leaders to step up. It will be suitable for our industry. It's time to molt. 

11. Online + Offline

    With advancements in technology and social media, customers and end users are becoming more informed about access control products and services. This will lead to a blending of online and offline strategies as the importance of both channels becomes more apparent. And it wields a powerful entity - the community. 

12. Importance of the Community

    Our industry communities have been a ring of conjoined circles, starting with the local market you work in, infinity groups like associations you belong to, a blog that makes everyone feel sick, and then pilgrimages to conferences and shows where we came together. We have also been a house of brands. Faceless entities that have a single voice and ignore the fact that behind all these brands are millions of people. Well, the internet is refactoring that, and with it comes the power of the individual and the micro-communities of influence and power. 

13. Mobile + Cloud Computing with AI

    Mobile computing and cloud computing will converge with artificial intelligence (AI), transforming them from mere iterations of existing technologies into robust architectures that enable hybrid solutions and enhance user experiences. The industry will witness the emergence of a vibrant ecosystem that goes beyond traditional partnerships and becomes a channel in itself. Some hold on to yesterday and fight the shift, only to their demise. 

14. Shift From the Door to the Person + UX

    Steve Van Till, CEO of Brivo, said it best at ACS23. "We have moved from the door to the person." Meaning that where the value is as an industry is at the consumer vector, not just controlling the door. That means delivering a great user experience matters, that means new ways to create financial value present itself, that means new rules are introduced, new stakeholders have input, and so on. The entire value proposition not only changes but becomes exponential. 

15. Video Access Control 

    Every video company will be an access control company and every access control company. The consolidation will happen for three reasons: (1) customer demand, (2) financial reasons, and (3) Computer vision will alleviate many access control shortcomings around high levels of assurance and convenience and things like tailgating.  

16. More Integrated, Not Open 

    We will all be dead or retired when we see open systems. That doesn't mean we won't see areas of standards adopted. What I do think we will have for the foreseeable future is more openness to systems working together. We will be more integrated. Whether that's direct or from middleware companies looking to be the single API tying our fragmented industry together, more companies will work together, and more customers will be able to have best-of-breed (however they determine that).

The industry can position itself for success in the evolving landscape - and capture that $70B market opportunity if we ride these and other market trends.

Now, if we couple these trends with the following market assumptions, you can start to have a conversation about what impact they will have and when. These 9 Market Assumptions will likely happen as a result of the trends above. They are:

1. Digital Transformation = Enterprise Software < IT Convergence: Enterprise Software will significantly impact our industry. Many companies in our industry will start calling themselves enterprise software companies and no longer consider themselves physical access control systems. Security Integrators will also start to look at themselves as providers of enterprise software systems and start calling themselves and acting as Systems Integrators. 

2. Continued Influx of New Money from PE and Strategics: Access control is seen as a growth play by many external entities. Many have worked through other utilities like HVAC and lighting and see access control as fragmented developing and the lack of SaaS adoption as a pure play opportunity. The amount of money coming into our industry is transformative. 

3. Data as Refined Oil: for a long time, big data was a buzzword tossed around like we do cloud and AI. As discussed at ACS23, data for data's sake is worthless, and data that is not accessible or able to be visualized is also a waste. Like a barrel of non-refined oil, you can't do much with it. As customers look to have our industry go beyond keeping bad people out, locking and unlocking what powers the workflows, automation, single pane of glasses, and exponential value will be from the data in and around our systems. Having a plan and strategy for data is table stakes. 

4. Cloud and Mobile-First + Adoption, and Then Comes AI: the gap between cloud and mobile-first companies and onsite companies who add cloud and mobile as a feature is going to be substantial, and the gulf is going to be quicker than we appreciate. Those that treat cloud and mobile as a feature are at a distinct disadvantage. Many of those same companies are treating the utilization of AI in the same vein. "We are going to add it over here and a little over there" is laughable. These are the core architectures of the systems of the near tomorrow. Take an iterative approach at your peril. 

5. Safety as a Bedrock + Operational Efficiency and Revenue Generation: it is time we put our safety chins out and take on the operational efficiency and revenue generation value creation. Remember, it doesn't matter how good the lattes are or how much an office can make renting out their conference rooms. If people aren't safe and do not feel safe, they won't be there to find out. Let's own this opportunity and start leading the narrative and solution providers. 

6. $70-100B Opportunity: because if we do what I just said above, there is a substantial amount of money at play. 

7. Built Environment Turbulence Soft Spot (Legacy) and Opportunity (Rethinking Value): one man's doom Is another's boon. Companies set up to be nimble and agile, serving deep into sectors and verticals, will benefit significantly from the current change and disruption. Those set up for yesterday's market are in trouble.  

8. UX: User Experience as a Core Discipline: I mentioned it earlier as a trend, and it's so significant that it's also an assumption - the consumer will want and expect a great experience. Suppose you do not deliver one and rely solely on creating friction because of "safety and security." You will be replaced by those who can provide safety, security, and delight. Your company will not just learn this by reading books or attending a seminar. You need to level your talent up, be new, or partner with companies that can help you. 

9. Proven feelings: Trust and Comfort: the pandemic challenged many long-term supplier-to-customer relationships. When the value proposition was keeping bad people out, locking and unlocking, we crushed. We delivered. Overnight, though, when the value prop and need changed to not only making that but a long list of ever-changing needs and desires, one outcome is a lack of trust and comfort that the legacy relationships, products, and services will help solve for the unknowns of tomorrow. It opened a window of opportunity for new companies to present their solutions. It forced customers to do more discovery on their end. Whether online or through their peer networks, what was once solid is suddenly very loose, and a new definition of trust and comfort is upon us. 

This leaves us with the impacts of these trends and market assumptions on the market, your company, and your customers: 

1. A value arbitrage is upon us. Who will capture it? 

2. Parts of the industry become a feature. Which ones and who? 

3. New truths present themselves. Some old truths disappear. The cards are shuffled. It creates opportunities. Which new truths are they? Which old ones die? 

4. Winners and losers. Common with most change, there will be winners, and there will be losers. Who will they be? 

5. Old + New for awhile. The reality is both worlds will exist for a long time. The question to ask yourself is, how much time and money do you spend on the new versus the old? 

6. Co-opetition: Compete + Cooperate: as the landscape changes, so does who we compete and partner with. One of the old truths to die is how we operate. It is time to reconsider a lot of things. Including who you believe your competitors are. They might be your best partner as we advance. 

So what should you do about it? Here are some of my thoughts:  

1. Command the space you occupy and leverage it. That space is beyond safety and security. 

2. Rethink it all for real. Set aside time to consider the inevitable of some of what I discuss above and the even longer list of things you know that I'm not even aware of.  

3. But do it with a tiny foot in the old and one large foot in the new. If we spent a fraction of the time thinking about the exponential as we do the iterative, we'd be well ahead of some changes. 

4. Have clear points of view. What are you willing to do and not give up? 

5. Create your channel. Stop complaining and prioritize the channel you need. 

6. Get in the market - online and offline. Rarely are companies winning at both. Consider it omnichannel. And by "it," I mean it all. 

7. Education and certification is the key. Prioritize it as a critical initiative. Treat it like a product. 

What trends, assumptions, and impacts am I missing that I should add to my list? Let me know, and I'll compile it and share it with the community.

Here is list of what we have planned for 2024 (subject to change). If any of these interest you and you want more information on them, just reach out.

• I will continue writing The Briefs 1-2 times a month. Any feedback? Please let me know.

• www.acalerts.co will officially launch. I am playing around with the model and want to use video more with it. Do you have news? Think of this as a resource.

• We will continue to engage on Slack. As one member just wrote me “Lee your Slack has been invaluable. I got a visit set up with [name] too get to know him and see if we can work on synergy. He's going to be visiting my factory and we're going to lunch probably next week. I invited another friend to the AC Executive Brief. That friend wanted me to do a bunch of Zoom calls with some long shot customers. I told him to stop messing around, the players are all on Lee's Slack channels.” 😢

• Global Access Control Topo Map will continue to develop. My plan is to break out the different categories and go more in-depth. What do you think of the new design?

• AC50 Index will launch. We need data and we need to tell our story. I am going to start small but will build.

• AC Enablements is coming. I want to create a community marketplace for reports, marketing services, and more. We have a deep community and if we work together we can leverage all our strengths.

• AC Experiences will do an event called #accesscontrol. This influencer event will be held at manufacturers facilities. More details to come but it will be a small group around 25 attendees. Time to redefine “specifier” and “influence.”

• We have 4 “Whitepapers" in the works but they will be different and done our way. First one? The redefinition of enterprise.

• I will continue to leverage LinkedIn with more programatic posts and to use it as a way to drive more awareness of trends, news, and Access Control Executive members.

• I plan to get into the market and visit with company’s. I will do this scheduled outside of events and shows. Next up? India 🇮🇳 late November.

• I am going to launch a 10 episode podcast that will cover the “and” of our industry. More to come.

• I am working on an Ebook titled “The Access Control LinkedIn Blueprint: Crafting a Presence that Stands Out.” My intent is to make it no cost to members with a possible webinar and charge non members to access it.

• I will continue to document the History of Electronic Access Control. The truth is, this is becoming a lot harder than I anticipated. It will not be out in December and I may refund the money I raised. Regardless, I will continue to work on it. It is extremely hard to get the pioneers of our industry to talk, but I am not discouraged. In fact, I am even more determined. It is just taking longer than I like.

• Here is a preliminary list of conferences and company events where I am speaking. On that, if you would like me to present, moderate, or attend any of your company events, please let me know.

  • January: Intersec in Dubai with The Thought Leadership Pavilion, podcast and videocast on the show floor, and much more.

  • March: MIPIM in Cannes. Still working on the details, but we will have a presence.

  • April:

    • ISC West in Las Vegas. We will not be doing The Lounge but we have a ton planned. If interested in any of these, please let me know.

      • ACS Pop Up: In-Booth Activation:

        • Stage interview format

        • Duration: 12-4pm in partner booth

        • In person, live, and recorded interviews/discussions

        • Scheduled guests for 1:1 topics and panels

        • Engagement with the crowd

        • Comprehensive digital marketing and promotion before, during, and after

      • Executive Briefings on Themes

        • Private themed presentations in partner booths

        • Morning sessions (Wednesday & Thursday)

        • Guided booth tours aligned with the theme following presentation

        • Curated list of participants

      • A Happy Hour (TBD)

      • Podcast/Videocast on the Show Floor

        • Scheduled podcasts throughout the show

        • Engage attendees through on-Site podcasting/videocasting

        • Comprehensive digital marketing and promotion before, during, and after

        • Sign up information available in 2024

    • Expo Seguridad Mexico in Mexico City

    • The Security Event with The Forum in Birmingham UK. The response so far has been amazing. We have 2-3 pods left and 3 full days of Thought Leadership to activate on stage.

  • May:

    • CREtech London where we will have an expanded “Access Control and Smart Lock Village” and create an immersive Connected Experience.

    • ACS Europe. Location TBD

  • August: SIA acceleRISE. We will continue to support this group and it is an honor to be able to sponsor the happy hour every year.

  • September:

    • Legic Connect24 in Switzerland

    • Security Essen in Messe Essen

    • GSX in Orlando

  • October:

    • ACS24 in Washington DC

    • OPTECH in Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center National Harbor, MD

    • Securing New Ground in New York

    • Skydd in Stockholm, Sweden

  • November

    • CREtechNY where we will have an expanded “Access Control and Smart Lock Village” and create an immersive Connected Experience.

    • ISC East in NY

  • December

    • Security Investor Conference in NY

Other events I am thinking about:

• CONSULT

• Blueprint

• APAC region event

• Latin America event

• Canadian event

• South Africa event

If there are other events or initiatives that you believe would be valuable for you, me, or the community, please let me know.

Thank you for joining me on this amazing ride. Let’s keep it rolling in 2024!