Volume 78

Volume 78 | November 5, 2024

Welcome to Brief 78!

The future of physical access control systems (PACs) is a topic that fascinates the industry, customers, and me alike. As technology evolves rapidly, so do the possibilities for enhancing security, efficiency, and user experience in access control. In this Brief, I explore this topic and offer my starting five attributes of the next generation of PACs (with a bonus insight into an AI-centric approach). Finally, I want to hear from you: What does your vision of the PACs of the future look like? Share your thoughts by replying to this Brief or joining the conversation in Slack. It is a meaningful conversation that must be done together as a community.Before diving into it, I wanted to share a couple of updates:

I am a week off from my trip to Brivo's Cloud Security Summit in Austin, Texas, and I will share my summary and key takeaways soon. It will be long and short, unlike AMAG, which, by my assessment, is desire and execution; for Brivo, it is more about a decision on whether they, along with Eagle Eye, will be the best of the legacy or fight for the more significant new era in security or try and do both. Thank you to the Brivo and Eagle Eye team and community for the opportunity to be at Cloud Summit. I appreciate the behind-the-scenes access.

Next up for me is:

• This week, I have an executive Meeting at DMP in Missouri with an industry dinner at Jack Stack Barbecue—Freight House at 6 p.m.  in Kansas City (coverage)

• Stop in Chicago to meet with Liftmaster/Chamberlain, Wesco, and Windy City Wire (coverage)

• I'm back in NY for ISC East, where we're activating the Critical Infrastructure Pavilion in partnership with the show and helping host a VIP breakfast with CoreWillSoft.

• Another trip to New York for the Security Investor Conference by Imperial Capital (speaking and coverage)

• Then to Groenlo, NL (outside Amsterdam) to meet with the leadership team at NEDAP (coverage)

Also, more info coming soon:

• Intersec Dubai and the Thought Leadership Pavilion

• ISC West in Las Vegas with the AI Zone and much more

• The Security Event in Birmingham, UK, with the XForum and the Night of Access industry night happy hour (RSVP now as we only have 100 spots for what will be a great night of fun and networking)

PS: I am sure some of you may forward this, but please do so sparingly and encourage others to sign up here. Thank you!

I get asked often what the future of physical access control systems (PACs) will look like. I spend more time than I'd like to admit thinking about this topic, so I am writing my thoughts and sharing them with you here. I plan to continue to work on this, and who knows, maybe write a longer piece with final thoughts? Maybe. I'll see what happens. Please note that this is not an easy exercise on the surface, and doing it without guardrails, definitions, or grounding makes it one part impossible and another part self-serving, so I thought I would ground my thoughts in two ways:

1. What I think the customer values in "the future of" is not just what I think it will be.

2. How an AI-centric "future of" would look like?

Also, note that I am not grounding myself in a vertical and do not enforce a timeframe, so some nuance is lost. In general terms, I believe what I list below works across verticals and will be relative no matter what vertical or timeframe. They are inevitable at scale.

Instead of just my thoughts, I'd love for the community to join me in ideating and defining the future of our industry. After all, it's not just about what I think the future should be but what we, as a global community, envision it to be.

With that in mind, here are five future values customers will seek in the new access control system era, along with a bonus one on what an agent-first access control system will look like.

The PACs of the future will revolutionize how we interact with secure spaces, making access feel intuitive, seamless, and frictionless. Not the COVID era frictionless and seamless nonsense our industry tried to shove opportunistically into the market (we should be a bit embarrassed with how we did that, by the way - it was lazy and lacked honesty). These advanced systems will significantly reduce bottlenecks and dramatically improve overall user satisfaction, and when I say user, I mean all users, especially the end user. Employees, visitors, and authorized personnel will experience faster, smoother entry without constant manual intervention, troubleshooting, or navigating physical barriers. Friction will no longer be an acceptable outcome for known individuals. We will need to have equal parts safety and convenience.

These future PACs will be characterized by their fluidity and ability to enable spaces dynamically. The concept of "smart spaces" will come to life, where the environment actively participates in the access control process. This has me most excited. Imagine walking towards a secure area and having the doors automatically recognize you, assess your clearance level, grant access, and do it ethically without needing a badge or phone.

A complete overhaul of the current hardware and software architecture in "securing areas" will be necessary to realize this future. The traditional siloed approach of separate systems for video surveillance, access control, and door hardware will give way to a fully integrated, intelligent ecosystem. Yes, the power of the platform was realized. 

These components will finally achieve true "smartness" with intelligence at the edge and a sensor-first approach that continuously supplies rich, contextual data.

At the heart of this transformation will be a network of advanced sensors and AI-powered systems applied to the security industry. These will gather and analyze environmental and behavioral data in real-time. Biometrics, gait analysis, and even intention prediction algorithms could be employed to make split-second decisions about access rights. The system will be capable of adapting to different situations and individual attributes, providing a personalized access experience for each user while maintaining the highest levels of security.

Furthermore, these future PACs will not just be reactive but proactive. They will anticipate potential security risks, optimize traffic flow during peak hours, and even integrate with other building systems to create a holistic, intelligent environment. The result will be a secure ecosystem that protects assets and people and enhances productivity and user experience in ways we're only beginning to imagine.

Future access control systems will continuously learn and adapt, building on advanced situational awareness, sophisticated attribute analysis, and enhanced intelligence distributed across edge devices, centralized systems, and cloud infrastructure. This multi-layered intelligence gathering and processing approach will enable unprecedented security and operational efficiency.

These systems will leverage machine learning algorithms and artificial intelligence to identify potential security risks before materializing proactively. With remarkable accuracy, the system can predict and prevent unauthorized access incidents by analyzing patterns in access requests, user behaviors, and environmental factors. This predictive capability extends to solving complex problems that current systems struggle with, such as tailgating.

One of the most significant advancements in these future systems is their ability to balance security with convenience. While traditional access control often prioritizes security at the expense of user experience, these new systems will introduce smart conveniences for authorized personnel without compromising safety. For instance, the system might use a combination of biometric data, behavioral analysis, and contextual information to seamlessly grant access to employees without requiring them to present physical credentials.

Moreover, these advanced systems will enable real-time risk assessment and dynamic policy enforcement. If an unusual pattern is detected – such as an employee attempting to access a restricted area outside their regular working hours – the system can automatically escalate security measures, require additional authentication, and then alert security personnel after handling it independently.

Integrating these technologies will result in a blended system that significantly enhances an organization's security posture. It will transform the very definition of our industry, shifting the focus from mere access control to comprehensive security enablement. This paradigm shift recognizes that modern security is about keeping bad people out and facilitating smooth, efficient operations for those who should be there - letting the right people in.

In essence, future access control systems will become intelligent, adaptive guardians of our spaces, capable of making nuanced decisions based on a wealth of real-time data. They will protect assets and individuals and contribute to creating more productive, user-friendly environments. This evolution marks an exciting new chapter in physical security, promising safer, more efficient, and more responsive spaces for organizations of all sizes.

With advanced self-learning capabilities, the system dramatically reduces the need for manual oversight and intervention, leading to significant operational efficiencies and cost savings. No one can tell me with a straight face that the way our systems are set up and configured has to be manual and start at 0…every time. This intelligent automation allows organizations to optimize staffing levels, integrators, and customers, reallocating human resources to more strategic tasks and reducing labor costs associated with security management.

The system's predictive alerts prevent costly incidents by addressing potential risks early. By leveraging machine learning algorithms to analyze historical data and real-time inputs, the system can identify patterns and anomalies that might indicate security threats or operational inefficiencies. This proactive approach enhances security and minimizes potential financial losses from security breaches or operational disruptions.

The return on investment (ROI) for implementing such an advanced access control system is substantial. Organizations can expect to see:

• Reduced security personnel costs due to automated monitoring and response

• Decreased insurance premiums resulting from improved risk management

• Lower maintenance and upgrade costs thanks to the system's ability to adapt and evolve without frequent hardware changes

• Improved productivity from smoother access processes and reduced downtime

• Enhanced compliance with security regulations, avoiding potential fines and penalties

Furthermore, the system's data analytics capabilities provide valuable insights into space utilization, employee movement patterns, and operational bottlenecks. These insights can drive informed decision-making about resource allocation, facility management, and even real estate planning, potentially leading to additional cost savings and operational improvements across the organization.

This next-generation access control system transforms from a necessary security expense into a strategic asset that delivers tangible financial benefits and operational advantages, providing a compelling ROI beyond traditional security metrics. Want to make more money, add value, and be even stickier than the last 30 years? Do this.

The future of access control systems lies in the ability to harness the power of big data and advanced analytics, transforming raw information into actionable intelligence. These systems will collect and analyze access data and integrate information from various sources, including environmental sensors, video surveillance, and external data feeds. This comprehensive approach offers deep, multifaceted insights into usage patterns, peak times, potential vulnerabilities, and broader security trends.

By employing sophisticated machine learning algorithms, these systems can identify complex patterns and anomalies that might be invisible to human observers. For instance, they could detect subtle changes in employee behavior that might indicate insider threats or recognize emerging patterns in attempted unauthorized access that could signal a coordinated attack. This is what "cyber security" would look like if our industry moved from high-level conversations about cyber security and implemented it.

These systems' predictive capabilities will be of immense value and transformative. By analyzing historical data and current trends, they can forecast future security needs, allowing organizations to adjust their security posture proactively. 

This could include predicting peak access times during special events, anticipating seasonal changes in security requirements, or even forecasting potential security risks based on external factors like local crime rates or global security events.

Moreover, these data-driven insights will extend beyond just security applications. They will provide valuable information for space utilization, energy management, and even human resources planning. For example, access patterns could inform decisions about office layout changes, HVAC system optimization, or staffing adjustments.

This wealth of data and insights ultimately empowers customers to make informed, strategic decisions about their security policies, operational planning, and resource allocation. It transforms access control from a reactive, rules-based system into a proactive, intelligent partner in organizational management and security strategy.

The COVID-19 pandemic shattered the trust and comfort customers once had in their chosen "ride-or-die" access control systems. Moving forward, the brands and systems that will earn customers' confidence demonstrate future readiness. These systems will redefine enterprise features and offer the flexibility to scale up and down, ensuring customers feel secure in their partner's ability to adapt to future challenges.

As access control systems evolve, they become increasingly adept at handling complex security landscapes without constant updates or manual intervention. This evolution is particularly evident in initial setup and ongoing maintenance, where automation and intelligent adaptation take center stage.

These advanced systems are designed with scalability, offering the flexibility to grow or contract with an organization's changing security needs. Whether a company is expanding its operations, downsizing, or pivoting its business model, the access control system of the future will seamlessly adjust to accommodate these shifts. This inherent adaptability ensures organizations can rely on a long-term security solution to meet emerging challenges head-on.

Moreover, future-ready access control systems are built to embrace new technologies as they emerge. With modular architectures and open APIs (yes, open APIs), these systems can easily integrate with cutting-edge innovations in biometrics, artificial intelligence, and Internet of Things (IoT) devices. This forward-thinking approach future-proofs the investment, allowing organizations to stay at the forefront of security technology without requiring complete system overhauls.

The access control system of the future transcends its traditional role as a mere security tool or utility. Instead, it evolves into a strategic asset offering benefits: robust security, enhanced user experiences, and data-driven insights. By leveraging advanced analytics and machine learning algorithms, these systems provide actionable intelligence tailored to each organization's unique operational landscape. This could include predictive maintenance alerts, space utilization optimization, or even insights into employee productivity patterns.

Furthermore, these systems foster a sense of trust and comfort among users by prioritizing security and convenience. Features like contextual authentication and personalized access protocols create a seamless and secure environment that adapts to individual user needs while maintaining stringent security standards. This balance between security and user experience is crucial in promoting widespread adoption and ensuring the system's longevity within an organization.

In essence, the access control systems of the future are not just about keeping unauthorized individuals out; they're about creating intelligent, responsive environments that enhance overall organizational efficiency, security, and user satisfaction. By offering scalability, future-readiness, and strategic value, these systems provide a foundation of trust and comfort that allows organizations to focus on their core missions, confident that their security infrastructure can evolve alongside them.

The good news is that we could bring this future to the present now. It comes down to desire and incentives. I know many customers are waiting for us to do so.

AI is the talk of the industry (everywhere?), and for good reason. It's reshaping how most systems operate and the value they deliver. Many bright minds (and yes, some salespeople, too) are betting on AI to boost efficiency and productivity. What excites me is the concept of AI agents - these digital helpers who can assist or even take over specific tasks.

This hit home during a recent Security Network Group (SNG) meeting. When asked if our systems were underpriced, a security lead from Visa argued they weren't, explaining how our system is just one piece of the puzzle. She emphasized the need for a team to set up and manage the system. That is a fair point, but here's where we need to push our thinking: What if we didn't need all those people? What if our systems could configure themselves, even partially? Imagine the impact if AI agents could handle 50% of the setup and management or offer data-driven suggestions.

Here's where it gets interesting: What if our systems could operate with fewer people or make the people who operate them more productive? AI agents could help address our industry's perennial 'people problem.' This applies to sales, too.

Now, let's talk data. Right now, we see value in our industry in who can unlock and lock the door. But that's not where the value is anymore. Whoever owns the data is going to win—period. Every access control company needs to consider this. We must establish data-sharing models and build platforms leveraging data over time.

So, what might an agent-layered access control industry look like? I'm envisioning a world where we augment human capabilities with agentic layers. We could combine data into lakes and use these agentic layers to extract valuable insights.

I'm pondering: "If access control systems were agent-first, what would be the primary value I'd bring to my customers?" This question could reshape our industry, and I'm excited to explore the possibilities.

These systems would generally be designed around proactive, AI-powered agents prioritizing dynamic decision-making, personalization, and contextual awareness. Let's get into it:

Contextual Awareness and Personalization

The system would recognize individuals and adapt their responses based on their identities, roles, past behaviors, and current circumstances. For instance, employees who usually work late would have the system automatically offer them a streamlined, secure access protocol when they arrive after hours.

Real-Time, Proactive Adjustments

The system wouldn't wait for someone to attempt entry to make decisions. Instead, it would continuously assess the environment, alert users, or take action based on predicted needs. For example, it could increase security protocols when high-profile visitors are present or temporarily restrict access to certain areas during maintenance.

Conversational Interactions with Users

With an agent-first approach, interactions with access control would be more conversational, like using a voice assistant. Users might query the system for real-time data or request temporary access permissions without manual intervention, enhancing usability and security.

Predictive Alerts and Notifications

Like the system of the future described above, the system would flag and notify users about any potential security threats based on historical data and AI-driven forecasts, such as identifying unusual access patterns or predicting peak hours for access requests. This approach allows for proactive rather than reactive security management.

Self-Learning and Evolution

Also, like the systems of the future described above, an agent-first system would use machine learning to improve continuously, learning from each interaction to refine access control policies and responses automatically. It could adapt to changing organizational needs, from shifts in employee access patterns to recognizing new threat vectors.

I know "the future" can be many things, and what I've outlined above is just the beginning. Here's what I'm certain about: the next 30 years have little to do with the past 30. As an industry, we have the power to shape what ever that next 30 will be - from setting priorities and building innovative solutions to managing expectations and making crucial decisions. The future isn't some distant concept; it's something we can bring to life today. All it takes is our collective will and desire to make it happen. I'm excited to see how many of you will contribute to this transformation. What does the future of physical access control look like to you?

Are you a founder or leader in the global access control and smart lock industry? Showcase your innovative solutions and share your journey on "3:37 with Lee," the only podcast and videocast series for startups and growing companies in our industry.

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