Volume 88

Volume 88 | January 7, 2025

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Welcome to Brief 88 and the first of 2025! For 2025, I'm taking a different approach. Rather than setting traditional resolutions, I'm outlining clear intentions for what we will and won't pursue. This shift reflects my commitment to myself and my family to embrace and enjoy the journey ahead, not just focus on "improving." Below, I'll share our strategic direction for the year as of January 1st, 2025.

As we enter our third year—despite statistics showing that 50% of companies fail at this stage—I feel confident. This stat doesn't drive me; it comes from you, our community, this great industry, the value we create, the families who rely on us, and the untapped opportunities in front of us. While others are walling off their content and imploding, we see a chance to expand, share more, and build a lasting media company.

Yes, a media company.

Here's why I used the words media company.

Most people don't know who or what we are. They know us through their interactions with the company—or, frankly, with me. But our vision is to become a significant player in the media industry, providing valuable content and insights. I want to share that vision with you.

Truth is, it's taken some time. What started as a reboot of Group337 after a short stint at Latch (I often get asked, "Was it worth it?" Yes—knowing what I know now, I'd go back and do it again. "Would I do it again now?" No. I'm thrilled where we are and don't see the need to chase "an exit" anymore. In fact, I don't chase much these days. It's far more freeing for me now. Whether it's age, my situation, experience, where we are with Access Control Executive Brief or a mix of everything—I'm done chasing and comfortable with who I am and what we're doing. It's a great feeling I'm happy to share with anyone who wants to hear about it. Am I complacent? No. Don't confuse comfort with complacency. I have plenty to do and want plenty more). When I launched the Access Control Executive Brief, there was something of a plan but not a big one.

I knew there was still a need for content, analysis, and business consultancy in the access control industry—perhaps an even bigger need this time. There was a global opportunity; I wanted to travel, write, and get paid for it. I wanted to work with Hilary again. I also wanted to do a show. In the end it was a lot about me. My thoughts, insights, me me me and you. In year 1, we were right by most accounts. It was a good year. In year 2, I knew the opportunity was even larger, and my wife and I realized I had two speeds: off and full steam ahead. I'm not built for a lifestyle business, at least not at this point in my life (though I do see an ice cream shop in my future, just not right now). I wanted to go big, but not necessarily in terms of people. So we said, "f it and just go do you." So we did. I wanted to focus on global access control while moving beyond technical aspects to bring more meaningful content to the market. We could synthesize trends, business changes, and market dynamics impacting our industry. We knew others wanted and needed content. So we built. And we did.

My LinkedIn had essentially become an industry information distribution channel versus my resume. I'm good with that. The Slack channel is a wealth of information and an even better, a rich community. ACS went global and brought eight months of content and information to the market in a way that I'm proud of. We've helped countless people and companies tell their stories (our YouTube channel is just getting started—with the amount of content we're creating, I'm confident it will become an essential resource for our industry), and the market seemed to get it. It also was a lot about me but even more about you. I liked that trend. By all accounts, year two was exponentially better than year one and gives me confidence that if we work harder and smarter, year three is when we can build something lasting that goes beyond me and how people have defined us. Your support and engagement are crucial to our continued success, and we are committed to providing you with valuable content and resources.

The realization hit me during a run while listening to podcasts—the 2023 Deal Book recap and an interview with Alex Cooper from the 2024 Deal Book show. In that discussion, they discussed how personalities redefine what "media" looks like. The landscape has shifted from traditional television, news reporting, advertising, websites, magazines (digital or print) with ads, anonymous posting, and blogs. What was now happening was personalities, thought leaders, influencers, and short and long-form content mixed online and offline, combining creativity and information to deliver rich content. Those personalities were also starting to branch out beyond themselves and beginning to produce for others. Remember that this is in addition to their own shows, writing, and activations. This is not instead of. And it dawned on me. Later, when Hilary and I met in person and asked ourselves, "What are we building?" the answer became crystal clear: we are building a modern digital-first media company.

I'm here for it and believe the security market is, too.

Like many modern digital-first media companies built around a "personality," "thought leader," or "influencer," what scales is expanding beyond that person and the information they produce (like my Brief), move into in-person activations (like ACS), and include sponsored content (marketing), and even more, start producing for others.

We didn't realize it or know what to call it, but we were already well on our way to building a media company.

And that's what's in store for 2025. We'll continue developing what has gotten us here, making it even better, more polished, insightful, and engaging. We are going to push boundaries. We will continue to focus on my thought leadership under the Access Control Executive Brief, expand my content development on LinkedIn and YouTube, activate in-person events like ACS, AC/MA, and partner with shows like ISC, TSE, Intersec, and brands, and at the same time, take what we've learned and start producing for others. That's what The Access Control Collective is about. It's more than me. It's more than access control (the name is confusing, I know, but I look at the other areas in security as access control adjacent, and I like that view, so it works). It's a collection of fixtures, personalities, information, and more. While access control will always be our foundation, we will extend into adjacent areas like video, finance, and verticals. I just won't be in front of the camera, the mic, or the pen. I'll be behind it with Hilary. We will be working methodically with experts in those areas to bring you the same level of content and information you've come to expect from us.

My goal in 2025? To become the most relevant and productive media company in the global security sector, with the leading personalities, analysis, information, content, and community. One you can trust. One that's informative and fun. One that makes you think and feel good. Uplifts the industry. One that expands beyond technical beeps and bops but digs into the nooks and crannies of the industry. One that is global. One that's beyond me. It brings you relevant information about how you want, where you want, and with people you want to hear from.

You'll be the judge, but I like our chances.

As you can imagine, there is much more to come on this, which will be coming soon over the next weeks and months. I'm excited about this and think there's no better time, team, partners, and community to do it than this one.

Below are some thoughts I wanted to share on what we will and won't be doing in 2025.

Let me know what you think. I'm always open to ideas, pushbacks, and suggestions.

Thank you for all your support, partnership, and friendship.

Here's to an excellent 2025!

PS: I am sure some of you may forward this, but please do so sparingly and encourage others to sign up here. Thank you!

What to Expect in 2025: Key Focus Areas

I'm sharing these for two reasons: transparency and accountability. Let me know if any of these points spark excitement, confusion, or other reactions in you.

1. Doing the things we want to do + like to do + market wants (even if it doesn't know yet) mixed with asked to do. This principle has guided our business from day one. When people ask, "Why don't you do all of physical security?" the answer is simple: just because you can doesn't mean you should. More importantly, I don't want to. I prefer focusing on what excites me, what we enjoy doing, and what we believe the market wants—even if they don't know it yet. However, while I may not want to do everything ourselves, we're open to partnering to replicate our access control success across video surveillance and other security sectors. And we will be doing that. More on that below 🙂.

2. Continue to fail in 2025 and treat each failure as a step forward. I know you know the adage, but stick with me for a second so I can explain why this is relevant. Being in perpetual motion, having high-risk tolerance, and not falling in love with every idea gives us the freedom to launch, assess, and invest in what works or cut what doesn't. While I've had bosses in the past (one in particular who was the worst boss I've ever had even though it was only 1 year and 10 months together) who saw this appetite as a negative, we have turned it into our advantage. With each attempt, we learn and can trace threads of failed ideas into our successful ideas. Take AC Alerts, for example. We thought the industry needed an email-based press release service. While that might still be true, we discovered my LinkedIn page served the purpose better. So we pivoted, applied what we had learned, and redirected our efforts there. I'm confident we'll launch one or two ideas that "fail" in 2025, and I'm excited to see which ones they'll be—because we know each attempt turns the knob of progress. I'd rather die trying than not try at all.

3. I will prioritize meaningful travel and maximize impact at each destination. In the first year of the access control executive brief, I went everywhere, mostly on my own, to prove something to everyone. Last year, I went everywhere I was asked, and those trips, although meaningful, were typically short in and out. I wish I could have spent more time at each stop. This year, I plan to go where I'm needed and spend more time there. Plus, my kids are 13 and 11, my wife and I are in our mid to late 40s, and I'd like to be home more. Call it a midlife crisis, I don't know, but I want to live with them a bit more versus the lousy air on airplanes.

4. Expand our content reach through multimedia channels. If ACS taught us anything, it would mean that we could get a lot out of a single day. However, being active and being productive are two different things. I am determined to get more value (production) from what we create, starting with the Briefs. In 2025, we will release a companion podcast with every written Brief. I tried using an AI tool (play.hd), but it wasn't ready for prime time, so I'm returning to the tried-and-true podcasts and YouTube videocontent- I will use my voice (Click on the images above). Following current trends, members will get full access, while we'll produce shorter versions for non-members. I will also go deeper into the audio and video versions as I reflect on the why, give more context, and even mix in more opinions.

5. Get more people in front versus me. In the introduction and number 1, I mentioned, "While we may not want to do everything ourselves, we're open to partnering with others to replicate our access control success across video surveillance and other security sectors." Here is what we are going to do. We have identified and started to engage with four other personalities and thought leaders that span the security sector. They have the knowledge, time, and permission to write and create from a point of credibility in their domain. We will work with them to produce and distribute their content via writing, video, audio, and in-person. We will systematically roll this out over 2025 to make sure we don't overwhelm you (or us).

6. Turn the ACS into a global must-see brand. Year 1 was the "show me" show where we proved we could get the right people in the room, the right topics on stage, and make it omnichannel. Year 2 was the "it's not a fluke, and we can do it globally" show, where we expanded to Zurich and flexed the global muscles while continuing the value year 1 brought. What's in store for year 3? The plan is to make it the "TED Talk" platform / Web Summit of our industry, featuring not just manufacturer executives but deep thinkers. We'll continue to expand globally, bringing in more end users, practitioners, and security-adjacent perspectives from all walks of the industry. This isn't just about trends or talking heads. This is about the subconscious of our industry. And we want to bring that to the market.

7. Continue being chaotic. I believe controlled chaos breeds success. While this approach doesn't suit everyone, it energizes us. Moving slowly or doing less creates anxiety for me. After years of being told by managers, one in particular, to stop "chasing yellow bouncing balls," I've finally embraced chaos as my strength. I thrive on this dynamic energy—what makes us unique in the market, and I'm done apologizing for it. Expect more of it.

8. But, be more predictable. In year one, we forced ourselves on the scene. We also experimented. We built things and then asked people to participate. Now? Our membership continues to grow month over month; we know the shows we will be at, the shows we will put on, the activations we are going to do, the schedule of content being created, partnerships partnered, and we worked hard in October to December on engaging with Brands to have a good idea of what's ahead throughout the year. We've left room for experimentation, ideation, and ongoing engagements, but we will be able to bring some predictability to help everyone with scheduling.

9. Build stronger relationships with end users, integrators, and distributors. Every year, I'm told, "You know what you are talking about here (geo, a vertical, a part of the business), but you don't know about this (geo, a vertical, a part of the business) grounded in zero truth but it motivates me every year to elevate my game (and prove people wrong). The first year was, "You know what you are talking about in North America, but Europe? Nah." So, I spent a lot of time and am happy to argue my understanding of outside North America. This year, I heard a lot about my knowledge of the channel and end users. Given my background, engagements, and community, this is hilarious, but it's game on.

10. Give back more to the industry in specific ways. In 2025, we are focusing on two key areas where we believe we can add meaningful value: (1) Addressing our industry's number one challenge—talent. We will help recruit and upskill technicians globally through the Foundation for Advancing Security Talent (FAST), a 501(c)(3) organization created by the Electronic Security Association (ESA) and the Security Industry Association (SIA) to promote careers in the physical security technology industry. (2) Supporting and providing a platform for global startups—an often overlooked but crucial need in our industry. We'll achieve this through the Member Accelerated Performance (MAP) Program at the Security Industry Association (SIA). It's an honor to be asked by Don Erickson, CEO, to join Rob Lydic and lead the program in 2025.

2025 promises to be a banner year, and I'm thrilled to get started. I look forward to connecting with you all online and in person. Thank you for being so supportive, and here's to your success this year!

Please let us know if we can help you and your company in any way.

Quick Reminders and Upcoming Q1 2025 Events

• Join our community conversations on Slack here. It is a built in Member benefit and another way to learn, share, and network.

• Want me to visit your company, present at your event, cover your company's rich history and future direction, give a keynote at your sales kickoff, or moderate a panel at your channel partner event? I'd love to learn about your organization, network with your team, and share insights. Let's discuss how we can make it happen.

• Events:

  • Intersec: The agenda for the Thought Leadership Pavilion is live! We will be in Dubai on January 14-16 with 10 partner companies: Alert Enterprise, Elatec, Wavelynx, Galaxy Systems, HID, Autec, SwiftConnect, CoreWillSoft, Intel - RealSense and Siemens.

  • BadgePass Partner Event - BadgeUP: I will be presenting at the 1st annual BadgePass partner event on February 24-26th in Nashville, TN and can’t wait.

  • AC/MA: Our first event focused on the financial sector, including banking, corporate development, venture capital, private equity, and the startup/scaleup community. The event will be Tuesday, March 4 from 8:00 AM - 12:00 PM at the Houlihan Lokey offices in New York, New York. Confirmed speakers are:

    • Michael Morabito from Houlihan Lokey

    • Tim Moxon Senior Vice President, Corporate Development & Strategy at HID Global

    • Xabier Apellaniz Business Strategy & Corporate Development Lead at SALTO Systems

    • Michael Levenberg Partner at LLR Partners

    • Sachin Jivanji Investor at Triton Partners

    • Robert Chefitz Managing Director at Egis Capital Partners

    • Bernhard Mehl CEO and Cofounder at Kisi

      …and more to come.

  • ISC West: More (a lot of) info to come soon on what we have planned for this event. We will keep you posted.

  • The Security Event: Held on April 8-10, 2025, at the NEC Birmingham, UK—the largest show in the UK. We're bringing back the XForum, and it's shaping up to be epic again. Plus, we'll be hosting our first industry event happy hour called Industry Night, where we'll bring together 100 of our closest industry friends for a night of fun and networking in partnership with RightCrowd, Wavelynx, and acre security. RSVP here with Hilary to attend.

  • ACS25: The Access Control Summit (ACS) is a prestigious global event, held once a year, that brings together executives, thought leaders, and industry professionals from access control, smart lock, and broader sectors. It serves as a platform for sharing insights, discussing trends, and exploring future opportunities. May 28 - 29, in San Sebastian with City Host, Salto WEcosystem.

ACEB Focus 10 Index: End-of-2024 Update & Reconstitution

by Tony Dong, MSc, CETF®

The index also showed higher volatility, with a standard deviation of 16.37%, compared to 12.53% for the S&P 500 and 13.72% for the S&P 500 Industrials. 

Unsurprisingly, this translated into poorer risk-adjusted performance. The ACEB Focus 10 recorded a Sharpe ratio of 0.27, lagging behind the S&P 500's 1.53 and the Industrials' 0.99.

Two key detractors, both micro-cap stocks weighed on the index’s performance:

• Identiv Inc. (INVE): Shares tumbled 54.28% year-to-date. The company faced ongoing revenue challenges and shrinking margins, compounded by high stock-based compensation that inflated operating expenses. As a result, Identiv’s net loss per share widened from $0.17 in the prior year to $0.40.

• SmartRent (SMRT): Down 47.07% year-to-date, SmartRent continued to struggle with achieving positive profitability. Additionally, its dwindling cash position, driven by high negative operating cash flow, raised concerns about its financial health.

While these detractors dragged on returns, the reconstitution process aims to address underperformance by recalibrating the index to better reflect evolving market dynamics.

Reconstitution

Launched last year, the ACEB Focus 10 Index has served as a trial to identify effective strategies and areas for improvement. A key aspect under review is the equal-weighting criterion.

The intent of this was to promote visibility of emerging players by featuring newer, smaller companies alongside established giants, providing a comprehensive view of the market.

However, this approach actually led to higher drawdowns and increased volatility due to an overweighting of micro-cap companies, which also hindered the performance of more successful firms.

However, we elected to keep the equal-weight methodology, and instead reconstitute the index to ensure a higher weighting towards mid and large-caps and filter out micro-caps while retaining some small-caps. This retains the spirit of the rule while making it more practical.

Current Holdings:

1. Allegion PLC (ALLE)

2. dormakaba Holding AG (DOKA)

3. ASSA ABLOY AB (ASSA-B)

4. Identiv Inc (INVE)

5. Honeywell International Inc (HON)

6. SmartRent Inc (SMRT)

7. Newmark Security PLC (NWT)

8. NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC)

9. Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI)

10. Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM)

Adjustments: Based on insights gained, we are removing the following three companies:

1. Newmark Security PLC (NWT)

2. SmartRent Inc (SMRT)

3. Identiv Inc (INVE)

These companies have experienced significant drawdowns. For instance, SmartRent and Identiv would require nearly a 100% gain to break even, making their recovery prospects challenging.

Moving forward, the index will maintain equal weighting but will now implement a $1 billion market capitalization threshold. Companies often achieve greater profitability upon surpassing this milestone.

While this change may reduce the likelihood of identifying high growth "moonshots," the index's primary intent is to serve as a straightforward barometer of industry performance. This adjustment ensures broad representation across the sector, captures technological advancements, and aims for improved risk-adjusted returns.

Replacing the removed companies are:

1. Johnson Controls International plc (JCI): A global leader in access control solutions, offering a comprehensive range of products and services for establishments of all sizes. 

2. ADT Inc. (ADT): A prominent provider of electronic security and alarm monitoring services, including advanced access control systems for businesses. 

3. Zebra Technologies Corporation (ZBRA): Specializes in innovative digital solutions, including scan engines and QR code functionalities for access control applications. 

These adjustments are designed to enhance the index's stability and performance, aligning it more closely with industry standards and investor expectations.

Please note that these changes won’t be set in stone until January. As always, we encourage our members to share their thoughts and suggestions. Your insights play a vital role in shaping the ACEB Focus 10 Index to ensure it continues to reflect the evolving dynamics of the access control industry. Let us know what you think!