Volume 89 | January 29, 2025
Click on image above to go to Podcast or YouTube.
Welcome to Brief 89, a deeper dive into the Top 5 Trends for 2025 that I wrote about in Brief 84 but did not provide a ton context. I dug deeper into them in a video and audio file found here, at the member podcast link or member YouTube channel above, on your member page, or in Slack. I will follow this one up with a deep dive into my word of the year (platforms) and the 10 other things I am paying attention to but didn't make the trends list. I also provided an AI analysis of what I said about the trends via Claude.ai below. The next Brief will cover Intersec Dubai, sharing my insights from the trip and analyzing their broader implications.
But before we get into the trends, I wanted to share three updates:
The Security Breakdown: We're thrilled with the incredible response to The Security Breakdown, our free weekly newsletter transforming how professionals stay informed about the global security industry. Built by members and for the community, this comprehensive resource delivers concise, no-fluff insights on video surveillance, perimeter security, intrusion detection, security operations, and global industry trends, all curated by leading experts and practitioners. As a dedicated space for learning, sharing, and networking, we provide both broad and deep insights, offering opportunities for connection, whether online or in-person, locally or globally. Please share the sign up link with your network!
The AC/MA Summit, scheduled for March 4th at Houlihan Lokey's office in NY, is a groundbreaking half-day event focusing on the global access control and financial industry. This first-of-its-kind summit brings together professionals from banking, corporate development, private equity, and venture capital for networking, keynotes, and panel discussions. The impressive speaker lineup includes financial market presentations from Michael Morabito and Justin Abelow of Houlihan Lokey, a corporate development panel featuring executives from HID, Salto, and Chamberlain, and a private equity panel with representatives from LLR Partners, Triton Partners, and Ulysses Management. The event also includes a venture capital discussion led by Annie Lan from Egis Capital Partners and a panel of companies sharing their capital-raising experiences, featuring CEOs from Kisi, Brivo, and SwiftConnect.
The Security Event (Birmingham UK): If you are a manufacturer or service provider serving the European market, The Security Event (as it's lovingly known) is the perfect show to showcase your offerings. We've partnered with the show producer, The Nineteen Group, to present the XForum—a thought leadership stage featuring over 60 talks, discussions, and presentations across three days. Surrounding the XForum are 12 "pods," which offer an excellent way to enter the show or establish a local presence if you already have a booth. The pods cost £8,000 and are transacted directly with The Nineteen Group (for clarity: we don't receive any money from pod sales; we're paid separately to activate the XForum, regardless of pod sales). We'll support you with social media and coordination efforts upon signing up. We're currently 50% sold, and I'm eager to fill the remaining pods. As a bonus incentive, any company that secures a pod will receive a complimentary 1:1 long-form podcast with their executive team, which we'll produce at no cost.
Thank you for all your support, partnership, and friendship.
PS: I am sure some of you may forward this, but please do so sparingly and encourage others to sign up here. Thank you!
Top 5 Trends in Access Control for 2025
Click on the image above to view the Youtube video.
Analysis: Access Control Industry Trends 2025 - A Critical Evaluation
by Claude.ai
Instead of rehashing what I said in the video/audio and pasting the transcript, I asked Claude.ai to "create a concise, professional article summarizing the key trends and insights from my analysis." Here is what it wrote back:
In a recent deep-dive analysis, Access Control Executive Brief CEO Lee Odess outlined his vision for the access control industry's trajectory in 2025. His insights reveal several compelling trends that warrant careful examination, particularly given the industry's current transformation phase.
Capital Markets: A Double-Edged Sword
Odess's first prediction regarding capital market dynamics appears particularly timely. His observation about heightened public safety concerns driving investment interest is well-supported by recent events, including incidents in New Orleans, Las Vegas, and Amsterdam. However, what makes this analysis especially noteworthy is his connection between these security concerns and increased capital market attention.
The hardware-to-software transformation he identifies as a key driver deserves special attention. While this transition is indeed attracting investor interest, it's worth noting that similar transformations in other industries have often led to significant market disruption. Odess's characterization of the industry's resilience during economic uncertainty is supported by historical data, though the scale of current technological changes may test this stability.
Consolidation: More Than Just M&A
Perhaps most intriguing is Odess's analysis of industry consolidation trends. While consolidation itself isn't surprising in a mature market, his insight into brand recognition's role is particularly astute. The industry's current fragmentation, combined with limited brand awareness, creates fertile ground for strategic consolidation beyond mere operational efficiency.
The prediction about public offerings is especially interesting given current market conditions. While Odess suggests several companies are preparing for IPOs, this may face headwinds in the current economic climate. However, his point about strategic positioning through consolidation remains valid regardless of immediate IPO potential.
Platform Evolution: A Necessary Transformation
Odess's analysis of platform evolution reveals a crucial insight: the shift from hardware-centric to software-centric solutions isn't just a technological change – it's a fundamental business model transformation. His observation that "features are now bugs" regarding isolated systems particularly resonates, as it highlights the market's shifting priorities.
The emphasis on API-first approaches and seamless integration capabilities suggests a mature understanding of where the industry needs to go, though the path there may be more complex than outlined. The challenge of legacy system integration, while acknowledged, might be more significant than indicated.
SMB Market: The Overlooked Opportunity
The analysis of the SMB market opportunity is particularly compelling. Odess correctly identifies market saturation in the enterprise segment as a key driver, but what's especially interesting is his observation about the "trickle-down" effect of enterprise solutions becoming more relevant to SMB needs. This represents a significant shift from the traditional bottom-up approach in the security market.
However, the channel conflict challenges he identifies could be more problematic than suggested. The transition from traditional dealer networks to digital-first engagement models represents a fundamental restructuring of industry relationships that could face significant resistance.
B2B Influencer Marketing: A Bold Prediction
While Odess's final trend about B2B influencer marketing might seem self-serving given his position, the analysis is well-reasoned. The shift from traditional marketing to thought leadership in the security industry mirrors broader B2B marketing trends, though the security industry has traditionally lagged in adopting new marketing approaches.
His observation about the lack of online communities built by manufacturers is particularly insightful and identifies a clear opportunity gap in the market. However, the challenges of creating and maintaining such communities, particularly in a highly technical industry, may be more significant than indicated.
Critical Assessment
Looking at these predictions holistically, several themes emerge:
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The industry is facing unprecedented technological and business model transformation
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Traditional go-to-market strategies are becoming increasingly obsolete
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New capital influx could accelerate change but also increase market volatility
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Channel relationships will be significantly tested
While Odess's analysis is generally sound, the timeline for some of these changes may be optimistic. The security industry has historically been conservative in adopting new technologies and business models, and while change is clearly coming, the pace may be slower than predicted.
Additionally, the interplay between these trends – particularly how capital market dynamics might affect both consolidation and SMB market development – could create unexpected outcomes not fully explored in the analysis.
Nevertheless, this framework provides valuable insight into the industry's direction and highlights crucial areas that industry participants should monitor closely as they develop their strategic plans for 2025 and beyond.
As a reminder, here are the Top 5 Trends.
